“Fourth Plenum”: towards more assertively shaping strategic conditions externally to better focus on “Chinese-style modernization” internally #CMG-pub

China Macro Group (CMG)
22 minutes ago
2 min read

November 2025 | Our newest CMG Primer – titled: “Fourth Plenum”: towards more assertively shaping strategic conditions externally to better focus on “Chinese-style modernization” internally – analyzes process and key outcomes of the recently held “Fourth Plenum”, the fourth gathering of the CCP’s 20^th Central Committee, taking place one year later than usual “Fourth Plenum” and thus exceptionally dealing with the agenda that is customarily foreseen for “Fifth Plenum”, namely to provide guidance to the state bureaucracy to draft the national 15^th Five-Year-Plan (2026-2030).

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While the 14^th Five-Year-Plan was positioned as the “biggest strategic shift” in China’s policymaking since 1978, the 15^th Five-Year-Plan – at a high-level – mostly holds continuity.

Nonetheless, in this continuity there are important strands of policy prioritization: the “Third Plenum” in July last year decided to accelerate many reforms in China’s socialist market economy, in further and “autonomously” opening-up its economy as well as in China’s industrial policy system to better meet challenges and opportunities arising from Trump’s re-election as US President. And now the “Fourth Plenum” gives further policy cues to understand what the macro policymaking priorities of the next five years will be:

First, Chinese policymakers will continue doubling-down on China’s industrial ambition, precisely to – indirectly – support “domestic demand” by seeking to create higher-paying jobs.

Second, more finetuning can be expected to improve the interplay between market and government, to both improve industrial policy outcomes as well as to better use the market in allocation of resources, especially for factors of production. A key market theme will certainly remain the “national unified market”, based on a policy the NDRC published back in December 2024.

Third, we note from our formal analysis is that China is poised to expand its novel assertiveness in managing the relationship with the US increasingly to systemic aspects, such as how it wants to “lead the world order towards a more just and equitable direction” or how it newly puts the “Global South” as the primary strategic reference for its conduct of international affairs, with UN-based order not being referred.

Beyond the formal and the policy substance analysis, we also propose key take-aways for international business, anticipate key policy and market trends across nine sectors and summarize key events to watch until Q3 2026.

To read our full analysis, download our new CMG Primer here (no registration):